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Minervini Stage 2

✕ Avoid

Stock picking — S&P 500 members

Mark Minervini's SEPA (Specific Entry Point Analysis) methodology. Identifies stocks in a Stage 2 uptrend using 8 trend and momentum criteria. Designed for short-to-medium term momentum trades with strict stop losses.

View 6-month backtest → View 1-year backtest →

New backtests are run by the owner.

How it works

An illustration of the rules on made-up prices, not real data.

Long-run result — 2015–2026, point-in-time S&P 500 membership

Annual return

5.7%

SPY 13.9%

Worst drawdown

-41.6%

SPY -33.7%

Trailed SPY by ~8%/yr once survivorship bias was removed, with deeper drawdowns.

Growth of $100,000 vs the same amount in SPY, 2015–2026

From the latest backtest run (to 2026-10-19): 5.6%/yr vs SPY 13.6%/yr; worst drop -41.7% vs -33.7%. Log scale, so equal percentage moves look the same size. Hover for values.

Rules

  1. Price above both the 150-day and 200-day moving averages
  2. 150-day MA above the 200-day MA
  3. 200-day MA trending up for at least 1 month
  4. 50-day MA above both 150-day and 200-day MAs
  5. Price above the 50-day MA
  6. Price at least 25% above its 52-week low
  7. Price within 25% of its 52-week high
  8. Relative Strength vs S&P 500 ≥ 70

Assessment

  • + Clear, objective entry rules — no guesswork
  • + Strong track record in bull markets
  • + Built-in trend filter reduces false signals
  • − Underperforms in sideways or bear markets
  • − Requires active monitoring and strict stop losses
  • − Small number of qualifying stocks at any one time
Last 6-month backtest: 07 Oct 2026 — SPY 15.8% Last 1-year backtest: 07 Oct 2026 — SPY 16.4%